Development of Climate and Infrastructure Forensic Analysis Systems: A BayesianPerspective
This project will upgrade the Climate and Infrastructure Forensic Analysis System (CIFAS), originally developed to characterize snow- and permafrost-related impacts to ground transportation and mine access roads in the Canadian North. My first objective is to enhance the analytical capacity of CIFAS by improving its ability to quantify uncertainties associated with empirical knowledge used to causally connect infrastructure service levels with climate-induced disturbances, as well as with climate projections from climate models. My second objective is to broaden the scope of the forensic analysis framework to consider issues related to freshwater security in Canada. I will illustrate the development of a prognostic tool for rapidly assessing the implications of climate change for lake phenology. The final deliverable will be a novel risk assessment methodology, integrated within CIFAS. Founded upon empirical knowledge, mathematical and statistical modelling, this addition will meaningfully support advancements in climate change policy making, infrastructure design, and management.