Evaluating water temperature forecasting models used to predict salmon migration mortality

I will be working as an intern with Vynx Design Inc. generating temperature forecasts that will aid decision making for salmon fisheries managers. My research will focus on improving the accuracy and effectiveness of short-term temperature forecasts as well as enhancing the understanding of the relationship between river conditions and mortality. I will use both deterministic and statistical models to generate 10-day river temperature forecasts that will be used by Fraser River sockeye salmon in-season management for predicting in-river loss. I will then evaluate the performance of these models post-season by comparing river temperature estimates to actual observed conditions and the costs associated with each. In addition, I will generate historic river temperature forecasts for multiple sites along major tributaries in the Fraser River to better our understanding of trends in escapement discrepancies and river temperature.

Jennifer Carter
Faculty Supervisor: 
Dr. Sean Cox