An integrated watershed-lake framework for water quality assessment in Toronto Harbour and Region Waterfront - Year two
This project aims to develop an integrated watershed-lake framework for Don River watershed draining into the Toronto Harbour to assess the best management practices towards improving the water quality in Toronto and Region Area of Concern (AOC). The framework will evaluate the impacts of suspended solids and bioavailable nutrients delivered by surface runoff and lake upwelling events on Toronto Harbour water quality, and their subsequent effects on eutrophication and growth of undesirable algae. The proposed modelling framework consists of four main modules: the Don River watershed model, the .ne-dimensional water/sediment routing model for the Don River, a three-dimensional hydrodynamic-water quality model for the Toronto Harbour, and a Bayesian-inference risk assessment module. The development of this serial-model ensemble will also facilitate the simulation of other spill events (e.g., Escherichia coli bacteria release due to sanitary and combined sewer overflows, oil spills, bird droppings), thereby serving as a comprehensive management tool for policy analysis. Hence, the proposed research can benefit the local management practices to more rigorously assess the exceedance probability and confidence of compliance with different water quality standards.