Sensitivity Analysis of Gas and Particulate Matter Emissions from Future Power Generation in the Province of Alberta

The Province of Alberta (AB) has decided to phase out coal power generation by 2030 and increase renewable electricity production to 30% of total power generation, also by 2030 with the remaining 70% of the power generation being dependent on natural gas. It has been conjectured that part of generation portfolio could be diversified to include nuclear power generation. The current proposal aims at studying available power generation (seasonally) in Alberta and create a model to predict their gas (CO2, CH4, and NOx: mainly N2O, but also NO and NO2) and PM1 (particulate matter) emissions in time using different generation portfolios. Once this model is verified against gas emission data obtained from the literature, future seasonal emissions will be predicted after varying the generation portfolio to include a certain amount of nuclear power generation (from 0 to 25% of the total output). An uncertainty analysis of the prediction will also be performed.

Nick Ogrodnik
Faculty Supervisor: 
Edgar Matida
Project Year: