Arterial travel time reliability and travel time prediction

The objectives of this study are: 1) examining the reliability and distribution of arterial travel time collected from probe data derived from two different modes, 2) examining the factors that have significant contribution to arterial travel time reliability, and 3) predicting the travel time for urban signalized arterials for a given scenario. The travel time reliability analysis will be developed for vehicular traffic and for the transit modes. Based on real time data obtained form the City of Calgary, this research will examine the shape of the distribution, the trends by time of day, day of the week and seasonality. Furthermore, the impact of signal progression, presence of signal priority, traffic composition, presence of parking, speed limit, weather, and special events will be examined. If necessary, observed data will be complemented with synthetic data extracted from a microsimulation model to examine other scenarios such as incidence occurrence and blockage occurring for various congestion levels

Mohammad Ansari Esfeh
Superviseur universitaire: 
Dr. Lina Kattan
Project Year: