Predictive microsimulation model for knee-OA progression and cost-effectiveness of earlynon-pharmacological therapies to improve long term patient outcomes
The proposed study has three objectives:
Objective 1. Develop KOA microsimulation model: To develop and validate a Knee-OA population-based microsimulation model (POHEM-KOA) using the previously developed POHEM-OA model.
Objective 2. Perform cost-effectiveness analysis of non-pharmacological therapies for KOA: To use POHEM-KOA in conducting a cost-effectiveness analysis of treatment strategies, including exercise therapy and weight reduction, targeted at obese and overweight early OA patients in Canada over the next 20 years [2013, 2033].
Objective 3. Develop simulation-based risk calculator software (knowledge transfer): To develop ‘Ko-Ask’, a clinical simulation-based risk calculator software that is capable of predicting OA progression outcomes for those diagnosed with early OA in Alberta, Canada. Methods and Study Design
Below we describe the research plan corresponding to each study objective.
Objective 1. Developing POHEM-KOA The evolution of several risk factors for OA, including BMI, physical activity (PA), Job type/length and OA incidence have already been implemented inside POHEM models (Appendix 1). We will adjust these for KOA estimates based on sex and age specific KOA proportions reported in (9). Once an incident KOA event is assigned, the patient will enter the “progression module”.