Short term Electrical Load Forecasting

Load forecasting is an essential activity for a company like Hydro-Québec. It is necessary for objectives as varied as the management of production or the management and maintenance of the electricity network. Any significant forecasting error can result in reliability issues, loss of opportunity, or additional costs to the business. On the other hand, a good prediction would allow Hydro-Québec to generate additional sales in neighbouring markets. With the deployment of its Advanced Measurement Infrastructure (AMI), Hydro-Québec now has a significant amount of new consumption data. This data can be used to improve demand forecasting, increasing reliability, decreasing expenses, and potentially generating new revenue. Macroeconomic changes such as the decline of heavy industry, the recent changes in society (teleworking, variable rates, etc.) and in the future (transport electrification, behind the meter production, storage, smart grids, active role of the consumer, etc.) are current and incoming challenges for the parametric forecasting models such as those developed and currently used by HQ, since the load is more and more difficult to modelize with no clear physical phenomena and measures to explain it.

Lawrence Abdulnour
Superviseur universitaire: 
Ioannis Mitliagkas