High resolution wind turbine power outputforecasting

Wind turbine generator power output and consumer electricity demand vary independently from one another. This presents a difficult situation for electricity grid managers as they attempt to exactly match demand using wind turbines and conventional generators (e.g. hydro, fossil fuels). Accurate forecasting of wind turbine generator power enhances management of the electricity grid, allowing for more wind turbine generating capacity while maintaining grid stability. This research will calibrate, perform sensitivity analysis, and validate the newest high resolution wind power forecasting model for Atlantic Canada. Resolution of space and time have increased from 10 km and 60 minutes, representing an entire wind farm with one forecast point, to 0.1 km and 5 minutes,representing a single wind turbine. Calibration will be completed by forecasting a variety of wind turbine types and farms and comparing with actual performance data. Sensitivity analysis will compare the incremental gains in forecast accuracy due to increasing resolution.

Faculty Supervisor:

Lukas Swan

Student:

Partner:

Scotia Weather Services Inc

Discipline:

Engineering

Sector:

Professional, scientific and technical services

University:

Dalhousie University

Program: