Identifying climate change resilient habitat using an integrative machine learning and coupled microclimate-biophysical modelling framework

Loss of biodiversity is occurring at unprecedented rates with an estimated 1 million species facing global extinction. Canada has the second largest area of intact natural landscapes and, therefore, a responsibility and opportunity to be a global leader in biodiversity conservation. Yet, Canada is facing a biodiversity crisis that particularly targets reptiles, one of the most endangered groups of vertebrates in the world and the most endangered in Canada. Continued reptile declines are the result of multiple stressors, including land use and climate change, which continue to accelerate. Ultimately, failure to address the biodiversity crisis will be costly as declines in ecosystem biodiversity negatively impact food production, human health, and water quality, posing direct and indirect socio-economic consequences. Our project will leverage an open-sourced habitat mapping database currently under development in collaboration with project partners to identify (1) reproductive and (2) overwintering habitats that will be resilient to climate change, thus providing critical refugia to species at risk. Specifically, our project will (O1) develop a regional-scale microclimate model based on land cover by leveraging a habitat mapping database and by up-scaling a site-specific soil depth model; (O2) develop a regional-scale biophysical model to identify climate-resilient upland habitat that provides critical habitat for reptile reproduction (i.e., nesting); and (O3) develop a regional-scale wetlands model to prioritize protection of critical reptile overwintering habitat. Biophysical models represent the cutting edge in modelling connections between physical and biological/ecological dynamics, and their use is integral to understanding habitat conditions under present and future climate conditions. The outcomes and tools generated in this research will facilitate effective habitat management, enhanced land use planning, collaborative stewardship among partners, and enable evidence-based decision making.

Faculty Supervisor:

Chantel Markle;James Mike Waddington

Student:

Partner:

Georgian Bay Biosphere

Discipline:

Earth science

Sector:

Other services (except public administration)

University:

University of Waterloo

Program: