Assessment of the uncertainty in calculating the wind farm energy production using statistical methodology

The evaluation of the wind resource and its associated energy production over the life cycle of the wind
power project is one of the most important elements to determine the profitability of a wind power
project since a bank bases its decision on the energy production that is estimated to occur with a 99%
probability. Its evaluation is a highly uncertain process and it requires the assessment of the
uncertainty in the measurement of the wind resource.
It is important to find a sound statistical approach to properly account for uncertainty in wind resource
assessment and wind energy production estimation, in order to bring rigor to this evaluation.
Uncertainty arises at all stages in the process, from measuring the wind speed to the uncertainty in a
power curve. A proper assessment of uncertainty is critical for judging the feasibility and risk of a
potential wind energy development….

Faculty Supervisor:

Christian Léger

Student:

Partner:

Hatch Ltd (Montreal, QC)

Discipline:

Mathematics

Sector:

Professional, scientific and technical services

University:

Université de Montréal

Program: