Simulation of permafrost degradation considering heat adg

Permafrost is currently degrading due to climate changes in northern regions, resulting in several impacts on civilian infrastructure and natural environments. These changes can ultimately lead to a shift in the water cycle from a surface flow regime to a groundwater flow regime following permafrost degradation. In order to anticipate such impacts, it is important to accurately predict permafrost dynamics. Numerical modeling studies of permafrost degradation generally conceptualize heat transfer as occurring exclusively by conduction. However, it has recently been suggested that groundwater flow in permafrost zones can increase thaw rates due to heat advection. The impact of additional groundwater flow in cold environments could have a profound impact on the rate of permafrost degradation. As part of this project, numerical simulations will be performed to quantify the role of groundwater flow on permafrost dynamics. The expected results are a more realistic prediction of permafrost degradation in a context of climate change which will be representative of a large portion of the subarctic territory.

Faculty Supervisor:

Jean-Michel Lemieux

Student:

Partner:

United States Geological Survey

Discipline:

Earth science

Sector:

Environmental Science and Technology; Sustainability & the Environment; Water

University:

Université Laval

Program: