Causal drivers of post-bleaching coral reef regime shifts

Coral reef regime shifts occur when environmental stressors result in the benthic composition abruptly transitioning from a coral dominated reef to one dominated by macroalgae. These shifts are a key conservation concern and have led to substantial degradation of coral reefs worldwide. In particular, climate-induced coral bleaching is now a leading threat to coral reefs, and can result in coral-algal shifts that are often detrimental and difficult to reverse. Yet not all reefs shift towards algal domination after a bleaching event, and a causal understanding of the conditions under which reefs recover vs regime shift is currently unknown. The aim of this project is to create a causal model that determines how different environmental conditions (e.g. depth, structural complexity, herbivorous biomass) have influenced recovery vs regime shift trajectories after a widespread climate-induced bleaching event in Seychelles. By applying causal inference to a 17 year dataset collected across 21 reef sites in Seychelles, this project provides a unique opportunity to study causal mechanisms affecting post-bleaching recovery potential on coral reef ecosystems.

Faculty Supervisor:

Aaron MacNeil

Student:

Partner:

Lancaster University

Discipline:

Life Sciences

Sector:

Life Sciences (not health); Sustainability & the Environment; Environmental Science and Technology

University:

Dalhousie University

Program: