Estimation of Contagion Risk of Infectious diseases by Uncertain Mobility Pattern and Social Interaction Analysis

The present worldwide outbreak of COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) has already caused enormous loss of human lives, and massive economic and social upheaval. Even as COVID-19 vaccination has started, it may be many months before normalcy returns. Public health interventions can play a major role in containing and mitigating infectious diseases by disrupting the propagation of contagion. The choices of intervention measures are critical for the policy makers to be able to make wise decisions. To determine the optimal intervention, it is necessary to understand the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases within a population. The goal of this research project is to understand the spatio-temporal transmission dynamics of COVID-19. Specifically, the project aims to develop a contagion model that is realistic and to incorporate this into a rapid simulation tool for a private sector company Black Arcs Inc. This tool may be employed by the provincial and federal governments to plan the reopening of offices, and assist with pandemic policy refinement and intervention strategies.

Faculty Supervisor:

Suprio Ray

Student:

Partner:

The Black Arcs

Discipline:

Computer science

Sector:

Information and cultural industries

University:

University of New Brunswick

Program: