Guiding delisting decisions in the Great Lakes area: Development of a Bayesian risk assessment methodology

The Bay of Quinte, a Z-shaped embayment at the northeastern end of Lake Ontario, represents a characteristic case, where scientific uncertainty underlies the current management efforts to integrate environmental concerns with socioeconomic values. The proposed project aims to develop a methodological tool that can be easily engaged with the policy practice of adaptive management and to illustrate the ability of this framework to update and improve model predictions and management actions. The project design is perfectly tailored to dictate the Best Management Practices that would lead to significant reduction of phosphorus export from the Bay of Quinte watershed and to evaluate the uncertainty associated with the assessment of the Beneficial Use Impairment “Eutrophication and Undesirable Algae”. The proposed research will be a reference point of how rational modelling and empirical knowledge can be used to guide system restoration and spark collaboration with the industry for future green initiatives.

Faculty Supervisor:

George Arhonditsis

Student:

Partner:

AEML Associates Ltd;University of Toronto

Discipline:

Earth science

Sector:

Professional, scientific and technical services

University:

University of Toronto

Program: