Long term modelling of power prices

Power prices are a significant contributor to the overall risk of almost any large-scale industry. In particular, energy companies such as TransAlta who are active participants in many regional power markets have a strong interest in understanding the long-term risks they are exposed to. This project seeks to develop a model that will help TransAlta to understand some of the uncertainty in medium to long-term power prices in California, the Pacific northwest, and Alberta. This model will be based on the dynamics of daily settled power prices, and will seek to take into account projected changes in demand, generation capacity and emissions regulations, as well as any forward-looking information embedded in market prices for futures and other derivative contracts.

Faculty Supervisor:

Dr. Tony Ware

Student:

Matthew Couch

Partner:

TransAlta

Discipline:

Mathematics

Sector:

Energy

University:

University of Calgary