Army-split, State Disintegration, and Civil War

Over the past decades, civil war onset has been a primary scholarly focus. Yet, most studies consider civil war onset to generally take the form of peripheral insurgencies. Based on recent advances in the literature (e.g., McLauchlin 2022; Siberdt 2022), we identify a distinct pathway to civil war, which takes the form of state disintegration and army-split. We examine the patterns and dynamics at play in this specific type of civil war onset through the combination of cross-national statistical analysis and in-depth case studies. We expect to find clear evidence that specific features and political practices, such as the personalization of political power or the overlap between internal tensions among the civil and the military elites, substantively increase the likely of this type of civil war onset. Based on the statistical results and case studies, we then turn to the detailed examination of the current conditions and civil-military relations in the United States and assess whether there exists a risk of civil war onset. Understanding the dynamics of state disintegration is essential as evidence suggests that if there were to be a civil war in the United States, it would likely take this form.

Faculty Supervisor:

Théodore McLauchlin

Student:

Partner:

University of Oxford

Discipline:

Sociology

Sector:

Public Service, Policy, and Governance

University:

Université de Montréal

Program: