Electrification planning with limited information – A case study on Ethiopia

Globally, 1.2 billion people lack access to electricity, mostly in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Countries across these regions rely on techno-economic models for electrification planning, which help them take relevant decisions under financial constraints and resource limitations. Optimization models are one of the most commonly used models in the domain of energy access. However, they are based on assumptions of perfect foresight with respect to future information i.e. perfect competition, market equilibriums, future costs, population and GDP projections. In reality there are a lot of uncertainties with respect to the information available and the foresight is far from perfect. The uncertainties are even higher in the context of electricity access today, given the multitude of technology options available – centralized grid, mini-grids, or standalone systems. With Ethiopia as a case study, this project applies a limited foresight approach with a shorter decision horizon, to a spatial electrification model called OnSSET . By doing so, we can understand the spatial progression of energy development with sequential decision making.

Faculty Supervisor:

Hisham Zerriffi

Student:

Partner:

Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan

Discipline:

Earth science

Sector:

Sustainability & the Environment; Green/Alternative Energy; Energy and Utilities

University:

The University of British Columbia

Program: