Deterministic Decision Making Using All Geological Realizations

Predicting the quantity of mineral (gold, coper, etc) or hydrocarbon (oil, gas) extracted from a given deposit is difficult. One concern is the uncertainty in the resources underground. A few initial wells or drill holes give us access to an estimate of the quantity of resource, but there is great uncertainty because sampling can be hundreds of meters or kilometers apart. There can only be one plan for extraction which necessitates that the plan be optimal from the beginning of the project; computer simulations can help greatly with this and improving the efficiency of these models through this research will ensure optimal extraction plans. Moreover, most existing strategies ignore uncertainty and this work aims to optimize extraction plans while accounting for uncertainty in the subsurface. This increases profitability, recovery and reduces environmental footprints.

Faculty Supervisor:

Clayton Deutsch

Student:

Diogo Silva

Partner:

Pretium Resources Inc

Discipline:

Engineering - civil

Sector:

Natural resources

University:

University of Alberta