Enhanced Model Suitability Analysis in Catastrophe Modelling through an Improved Understanding of the Seismic Hazard in Western Canada

One of the most destructive natural disasters that Canada could experience is a major earthquake affecting a highly-populated area. A 2013 study commissioned by the Insurance Bureau of Canada estimated that a magnitude 9.0 earthquake in British Columbia, and a magnitude 7.1 earthquake in the Quebec City-Montreal-Ottawa corridor would result in financial losses of almost $75 billion and $61 billion, respectively. These earthquake impacts are estimated with catastrophe modelling software, which express mathematically the fundamental physical characteristics of catastrophic events, such as earthquakes. In order for catastrophe models to accurately estimate the impacts of earthquakes, accurate seismic hazard characterization is essential. A first step in adequate seismic hazard characterization is identifying all possible seismic sources in a region, and their corresponding seismic rates (i.e. the frequency with which earthquakes above a certain magnitude occur at each source). TO BE CONT’D

Faculty Supervisor:

Carlos Molina Hutt


Shervin Zahedi


Guy Carpenter


Engineering - civil






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