Modelling the Effectiveness of Treatment as Prevention in Containing the HIV Epidemic

The HIV epidemic and risk behaviour in the DTES will be modelled as stochastic processes on a network. Nodes in the network will represent individuals and links social interactions between them. Stochastic contact processes on the network links will be used to model both transmission of HIV and social influence. The network will capture transmission of HIV through both sexual activity and needle sharing during injection drug use. The model will be validated by comparing its output to historical data on the epidemic in different risk groups. This data is available from the BC Centre for Disease Control and the BC-CfE. Once the model has been calibrated so that it recreates the historical epidemic, various potential interventions against the epidemic can be evaluated by varying parameters within the model.

Faculty Supervisor:

Alexander Rutherford

Student:

Partner:

Providence Health Care;Merck Canada Inc (Vancouver, BC)

Discipline:

Mathematics

Sector:

Health and Related Sciences & Technology; Manufacturing; Professional, scientific and technical services

University:

Simon Fraser University

Program: