The impact of PCV13 vaccine program discontinuation on herd immunity decay and serotype replacement: a mathematical modeling study

The clinical and cost effectiveness of immunizing children WIth PCV7 and PCV13 is well established in the scientific literature. However the success of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines in children has given rise to questions from payers regarding whether continued investment in PCV13 for children is needed. The proposed research project undertaken by the intern will help the partner organization to quantitatively determine: 1) What is the optimal percentage of the children population that needs to be vaccinated to incure herd immunity in the rest of the population? 2) If vaccinating children with PCV13 were discontinued, how fast will herd immunity decay? and 3) If cavvination of children with PCV13 were discontinued, how fast will previously protected serotypes return to the population? Answers to these questions will inform the partner oganization for make evidence-based decisions on the PCV13 vaccination program.

Faculty Supervisor:

Dr. Michael Li

Student:

Rebecca de Boer

Partner:

Institute of Health Economics

Discipline:

Mathematics

Sector:

Finance, insurance and business

University:

University of Alberta