Using an analog approach to improve weather forecasts for a hydroelectric energy company

Accurate weather forecasts are extremely important when managing power production athydroelectric dams. BC Hydro uses weather forecasts to predict the amount of water flowing into reservoirs due to rainstorms and snowmelt. This project develops a system that improves these weather forecasts by correcting them based on how the forecasts performed in the past. The system finds days in the past that are similar to the forecast day and makes a correction based on what the forecast errors were on those days. These improved forecasts help BC Hydro keep reservoir levels as high as possible for maximum efficiency while ensuring that water does not spill. In the end this provides economic savings to people and industries of BC.

Faculty Supervisor:

Dr. Roland Stull

Student:

Thomas Nipen

Partner:

Power Authority

Discipline:

Environmental sciences

Sector:

Energy

University:

University of British Columbia