The Star: B.C. researchers developing simulation that could predict and prevent mass shootings

VANCOUVER—When thousands of people gather for parades, concerts and festivals, they are also vulnerable to unpredictable attacks by terrorists intent on creating the most chaos and destruction, but researchers at a B.C. university say they are developing technology that could help prevent these terror events.

Karthik Vedantham and Andrew Park at Thompson Rivers University in Kamloops are creating a predictive tool that uses three-dimensional mapping of large urban areas to help detect the precise location of lone shooters who might want to harm a large number of people at public events.

“This is something that needs to happen, and if we do it on a large scale, it might prevent attacks from happening. That’s the best outcome for us,” said Vedantham, who is an undergraduate student from India and has spent the summer at the university as part of the Mitacs Globalink internship program.

Vedantham has been working with Park, who is an associate professor of computer science, to develop a computer simulation that can identify locations where a terrorist acting alone may position themselves to cause the most chaos during large public events. Using a space where a crowd is expected to gather as a starting point, the algorithm takes into account shooting distance, views and angles to isolate the most likely location of the shooter.

The team based their study on the behavioural patterns exhibited by previous terrorists who acted alone. According to Vedantham and Park, the terrorist attack on the Las Vegas strip in 2017, and the attack at an Orlando nightclub in 2016, are prime examples of how lone shooters often aim to cause extreme havoc in public places, no matter their ideology or affiliation.

“Most of the time they have assault rifles and they try to create as much chaos as they can and create as much damage as possible,” Vedantham said.

The researchers have been using real life terrorist scenarios to test their algorithm. Vedantham and Park used a three-dimensional map of the Las Vegas strip to imitate the site of the October 2017 shooting at a music festival, where a single gunman killed 58 people and wounded 422.

The program immediately located the Mandalay Bay hotel as the ideal point where a shooter would position themselves for the clearest view of the crowd below — this was exact place where the actual shooter was found.