A phase-type model for health status transitions

The main objective of the proposed research is to develop a flexible and mathematically tractable disability model.  The model will describe the rates of transition between health, disability, and death, allow one to explore factors affecting disability incidence and duration and their trends, and facilitate the computation of probabilities associated with future disabilities.  This model will be valuable to London Life, as they have significant amounts of both individual and group disability insurance in force.  The model will provide a tool for analyzing their experience, pricing their disability insurance products, and understanding the risks associated with emerging trends.  The research will benefit Ontario, as it contributes to the understanding of how the health of Ontarians is changing, at the individual level – during their lifetimes – and at the population level over time.

Faculty Supervisor:

Dr. Bruce Jones


Amin Hassan Zadeh


Canada Life


Statistics / Actuarial sciences


Finance, insurance and business


Western University



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