Assessment of Fire Risk to Recreational Properties in Central Ontario

Risk to residential and commercial properties due to wildfire in areas of increased human habitation is an important but relatively unstudied phenomenon. Insurers are likely exposed to an increasing risk in the face of climate change and increased population in forested areas. The internship’s aim is to study this problem and to provide an estimate of the probability of a major wildfire event in the Muskoka region of Central Ontario sometime in the next ten years. The research team will also estimate the loss which insurers would expect to incur if such an event were to occur. Because the area lies outside the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources intensive fire suppression zone, it will be necessary to collect a substantial amount of data on the types of fuel in the area. The intern will be responsible for collecting this information and will participate in most other aspects of this project: modelling and simulating the fire ignition process, simulating the spread of fire using the current standard in fire spread simulation (PROMETHEUS), and calculating the risk.

Faculty Supervisor:

Dr. Paul Kovacs


Jonathan Lee


Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction


Statistics / Actuarial sciences


Finance, insurance and business


Western University



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