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This project pertains to the modeling, detection and monitoring of crises in geopolitical
dynamiC environments. As risks are inherent to crises, we need tools to cope with the
uncertainty factors involved in these situations. The objective of this project is to conduct
research activities to support the understanding of crisis situations and to model their
potential evolution. Our main goal is to explore how to find patterns from episodes of
conflicts that can be reused as templates by human operators in th~ir analysis process.
The technologies targeted for this project are Markov models and Case-Based reasoning
. (CBR). Markov models are efficient tools for modeling sequences of events as they
capture the uncertainty inherent to a process. Various extensions, such as Hidden Markov
models (HMM), are available for modeling complex stochastic processes with partial
information. CBR is a framework, originating from artificial intelligence, which can be used
to find similarities in situations and to help in the interpretation~ of these situations….
Luc Lamontagne
OODA Technologies Inc
Computer science
Professional, scientific and technical services
Université Laval
Accelerate
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