Development of Freshwater Forecasting System using the SWAT-MODFLOW total water budget model

We will design and build a software suite for producing 36-hour forecasts of water flow rates and turbidity (cloudiness) at any point along the channels of the Upper Yellowstone River Watershed (UYRW). This forecasting system will respond to real-time sources of information on weather and upstream sensor readings, and will be designed for continual updates (via automatic daily recalibrations) based on modern statistical techniques. This project will substantially modify an existing software package (SWAT-MODFLOW) by introducing: turbidity forecasting; a more realistic accounting of snow buildup in the mountains; a calibration system designed for real-time updates; and an easy-to-use interface for running simulations and plotting inputs/outputs. The partner organization will be able to use this software for scenario-planning, and to obtain more accurate estimates of watershed metrics – both historical and current — that are crucial to managing human water users (public and private), wildlife, and the environment.

Faculty Supervisor:

Subhash Lele


Dean Cameron Koch




Statistics / Actuarial sciences




University of Alberta


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